In this lesson, students learn how probability is determined and why the number of times you try an experiment can affect the outcome. By flipping coins and pulling marbles out of a bag, students begin to develop a basic understanding of probabilities, how they are determined, and how the outcome of an experiment can be affected by the number of times it is conducted. After an initial activity that introduces the concept of probability, students work in small groups to conduct probability trials using marbles. Then, students discuss their findings with the whole class and visit the Marble Mania online interactive tool. This is a tool in which the randomness and probability of marbles being pulled out of a “bag” are calculated automatically and for trials up to 500. In short, students will be able to see how the experimental probability more accurately reflects the theoretical probability when larger numbers of trials are conducted. Science NetLinks provides student handouts and links to necessary web resources, detailed instructions for completing the lesson, and links to similar lesson plans.



